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Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
By_Owl Teamloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Stray Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

By_Owl Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
by_Owl · 8 games
88%
Techies
Techiessignature
rostikfacekid · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
rostikfacekid · 6 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Koma` · 6 games
83%
Silencer
Silencer
by_Owl · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
blindzone · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rostikfacekid · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
avice · 5 games
100%

Stray Team

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Stray · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Vovapain · 7 games
29%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 7 games
43%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Vovapain · 7 games
57%
Pudge
Pudge
DkFogas · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Goodoq · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Stray · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 322 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
432 picks · 229 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 176 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
344 picks · 311 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 493 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 285 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
282 picks · 130 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 502 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% By_Owl Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% By_Owl Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:45
By_Owl Team 56%Stray Team 44%
The model gave 56% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKoma`
49% · 115 games51% · 71 game
Svenzvёzd
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritavice
56% · 148 games44% · 72 games
NecrophosStray
Necrophos
Slark
Slarkblindzone
51% · 37 games54% · 62 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
Techies
Techiesrostikfacekid
50% · 142 games52% · 221 game
RubickVovapain
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorby_Owl
47% · 55 games44% · 71 game
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed24:47
By_Owl Team 55%Stray Team 45%
The model gave 55% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidblindzone
42% · 79 games51% · 207 games
Tinyzvёzd
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingKoma`
50% · 76 games53% · 115 games
Dark SeerDkFogas
Dark Seer
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeravice
49% · 23 games53% · 30 games
SniperStray
Sniper
Undying
Undyingby_Owl
52% · 117 games55% · 54 games
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrostikfacekid
40% · 186 games58% · 75 games
Witch DoctorVovapain
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteBy_Owl Team · 59%
Series resultStray Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2