?
arrow_backBack to match
Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALOHADANCE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gorgc Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALOHADANCE Team

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
спортик · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
izverq · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Madnexus · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
AfterLife · 4 games
25%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
спортик · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
AfterLife · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
Madnexus · 2 games
0%

Gorgc Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
Excalibur · 4 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SingSing · 3 games
33%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Excalibur · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
sheepsticked · 3 games
33%
Bane
Baneoften banned
pieliedie · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
507 picks · 315 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
431 picks · 226 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 176 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 311 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 491 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 284 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
280 picks · 130 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 502 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ALOHADANCE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Gorgc Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed55:28
ALOHADANCE Team 46%Gorgc Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Gorgc Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidALOHADANCE
49% · 30 games49% · 87 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightспортик
54% · 57 games60% · 77 games
SlarkGorgc
Slark
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPetushara
57% · 3 games47% · 128 games
Earth SpiritGunnar
Earth Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakergood_mma
40% · 28 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEARTHQ
46% · 174 games
Game 2prediction correct28:44
ALOHADANCE Team 44%Gorgc Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Gorgc Team — the game was taken by Gorgc Team in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetALOHADANCE
47% · 113 games50% · 142 games
Dragon KnightSabeRLight-
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomPetushara
52% · 131 game58% · 39 games
Phantom LancerGorgc
Phantom Lancer
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerспортик
41% · 14 games53% · 303 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickEARTHQ
49% · 145 games
Undying
Undyinggood_mma
42% · 81 game
Game 3prediction missed62:31
ALOHADANCE Team 47%Gorgc Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Gorgc Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 1:12:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidALOHADANCE
56% · 72 games44% · 119 games
ViperGorgc
Viper
Invoker
Invokerспортик
53% · 113 games50% · 256 games
Ember SpiritGunnar
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPetushara
50% · 65 games49% · 59 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Silencer
Silencergood_mma
50% · 26 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterEARTHQ
51% · 158 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGorgc Team · 56%
Series resultALOHADANCE Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3