Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Nature's Prophet
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
192 picks · 424 bans
Mars
178 picks · 322 bans
Earth Spirit
164 picks · 136 bans
Void Spirit
164 picks · 234 bans
Phoenix
141 picks · 161 bans
Keeper of the Light
132 picks · 219 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 425 bans
Rubick
120 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
The Cut 46%simply TOOBASED 54%
The model gave 54% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 35:13.
Game 2prediction correct28:45
The Cut 46%simply TOOBASED 54%
The model gave 54% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 35:48.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 54%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2