Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Jiang Huloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Rubick
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Enchantress
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 1 game
Jiang Hu
Mirana
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Tiny
P1 · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
191 picks · 421 bans
Mars
175 picks · 322 bans
Void Spirit
164 picks · 232 bans
Earth Spirit
163 picks · 136 bans
Phoenix
141 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 219 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 423 bans
Rubick
120 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Team DogChamp 53%Jiang Hu 47%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawlukiluki
Ember SpiritP1
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
PuckBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct32:36
Team DogChamp 53%Jiang Hu 47%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
InvokerP1
Marslukiluki
EnchantressBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 58%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2