PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MHMagic Handswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Tusk
Atoufix · 11 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Magic Hands
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 589 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 779 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 583 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 554 bans
Mars
342 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Magic Hands
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:49
Level UP 67%Magic Hands 33%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Magic Hands in 48:39.
Game 2prediction missed
Level UP 67%Magic Hands 33%
The model gave 67% on Level UP — the game was taken by Magic Hands.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 67%
Series resultMagic Hands 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2