PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionVValinorwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ccatsgangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Valinor
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Jakirooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Muerta
Coblackk · 2 games
Phoenix
G.T.I · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
catsgang
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 851 bans
Tusk
518 picks · 370 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 588 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 777 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 583 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 554 bans
Mars
341 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% catsgang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Valinor
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:45
Valinor 67%catsgang 33%
The model gave 67% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 42:19.
Game 2prediction correct52:22
Valinor 67%catsgang 33%
The model gave 67% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 35:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteValinor · 67%
Series resultValinor 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2