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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Creepwaveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 6 games
100%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 6 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 5 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Gilgir · 5 games
100%

Creepwave

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
89%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Lich
Lichsignature
Fishman · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
186 picks · 418 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
173 picks · 317 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 132 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
162 picks · 230 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
138 picks · 156 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 214 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 415 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
119 picks · 64 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 81%
Hero pool strength53% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
Hellbear Smashers 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAce
26% · 11 games47% · 20 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Viper
ViperMISERY
56% · 12 games59% · 35 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
50% · 20 gameslittle data
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
38% · 19 games59% · 17 games
ClockwerkAlexxo
Clockwerk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGilgir
53% · 10 gameslittle data
LichFishman
Lich
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Hellbear Smashers 46%Creepwave 54%
The model gave 54% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAce
53% · 12 games33% · 5 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
57% · 26 games51% · 32 games
MarsATF
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaMISERY
33% · 5 games43% · 3 games
Outworld DestroyerMalr1ne
Outworld Destroyer
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGilgir
43% · 3 games50% · 18 games
MiranaAlexxo
Mirana
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctortOfu
46% · 12 gameslittle data
LichFishman
Lich
Game 3prediction missed35:17
Hellbear Smashers 44%Creepwave 56%
The model gave 56% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAce
55% · 48 games61% · 42 games
Wraith KingCrystallis
Wraith King
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
48% · 17 games46% · 43 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMISERY
52% · 28 games47% · 7 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
54% · 48 games48% · 63 games
PhoenixAlexxo
Phoenix
Oracle
OracletOfu
36% · 35 games46% · 21 game
Crystal MaidenFishman
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 60%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3