Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Mirana
Tims · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
kpii · 2 games
Marsoften banned
kpii · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
Tusk
Tims · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
kpii · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Gabbi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
185 picks · 416 bans
Mars
172 picks · 316 bans
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 132 bans
Void Spirit
162 picks · 228 bans
Phoenix
137 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 214 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 414 bans
Rubick
119 picks · 64 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
T1 62%TNC Predator 38%
The model gave 62% on T1 — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:01:11.
Game 2prediction missed25:11
T1 62%TNC Predator 38%
The model gave 62% on T1 — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 38:33.
Game 3prediction missed38:26
T1 62%TNC Predator 38%
The model gave 62% on T1 — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 1:15:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 62%
Series resultTNC Predator 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3