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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 3 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 3 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 2 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 2 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
gpK~ · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 1 game
100%

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 7 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
183 picks · 409 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
170 picks · 314 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 128 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
158 picks · 226 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
136 picks · 152 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
124 picks · 214 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
120 picks · 409 bans
63%
Rubick
Rubick
117 picks · 64 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:3
Virtus.pro 55%EXTREMUM 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
46% · 35 games43% · 15 games
BloodseekerNefrit
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckgpK~
51% · 54 games57% · 21 game
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
48% · 24 games51% · 42 games
TidehunterShachlo
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
46% · 23 games55% · 51 game
Keeper of the LightG
Keeper of the Light
Oracle
Oracle1ls
46% · 40 games51% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Virtus.pro 53%EXTREMUM 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNightfall
47% · 21 game75% · 4 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
42% · 21 game38% · 4 games
Outworld Destroyermellojul
Outworld Destroyer
Pugna
PugnagpK~
44% · 5 games57% · 43 games
MarsShachlo
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden1ls
39% · 24 games53% · 24 games
RubickChuvash
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
45% · 32 games59% · 28 games
Keeper of the LightG
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2