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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Live to Winwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Live to Win

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
AfterLife · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
fn · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
AfterLife · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
fn · 1 game
0%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 5 games
80%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 4 games
25%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Petushara · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
181 picks · 409 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
170 picks · 313 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
158 picks · 224 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
136 picks · 152 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
123 picks · 212 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
118 picks · 408 bans
62%
Rubick
Rubick
117 picks · 64 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:15
Live to Win 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Live to Win in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightfn
little data44% · 29 games
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
45% · 12 games52% · 20 games
LycanPetushara
Lycan
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKami
62% · 21 game47% · 23 games
Shadow Shamansayuw
Shadow Shaman
Tidehunter
TidehunterAfterLife
58% · 17 games44% · 5 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinImmersion
46% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct7:23
Live to Win 46%Team Empire 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckfn
45% · 29 games70% · 6 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Ursa
UrsaKami
25% · 4 games53% · 7 games
BrewmasterPetushara
Brewmaster
Pangolier
PangolierAfterLife
50% · 10 games54% · 34 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerImmersion
57% · 3 games53% · 7 games
DisruptorEcNart
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
42% · 8 games
Game 3prediction correct32:17
Live to Win 50%Team Empire 50%
The model gave 50% on Live to Win — the game was taken by Live to Win in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKami
63% · 4 games57% · 3 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Puck
Puckfn
61% · 43 games53% · 14 games
TimbersawPetushara
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAfterLife
54% · 16 games39% · 55 games
Earth Spiritsayuw
Earth Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
53% · 10 games38% · 14 games
Crystal MaidenEcNart
Crystal Maiden
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinImmersion
57% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 55%
Series resultLive to Win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3