Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 2 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 2 games
Gyrocopter
shiro · 2 games
Iooften banned
zzq · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
180 picks · 404 bans
Mars
169 picks · 310 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
157 picks · 220 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 212 bans
Nyx Assassin
117 picks · 405 bans
Rubick
116 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:6
Royal Never Give Up 42%Phoenix Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 30:07.
Game 2prediction correct32:32
Royal Never Give Up 42%Phoenix Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 1:05:53.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 58%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2