Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A-Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
A-Team
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Rises · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
180 picks · 403 bans
Mars
169 picks · 310 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
156 picks · 220 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
121 picks · 210 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 405 bans
Rubick
116 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:39
Quincy Crew 69%A-Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by A-Team in 28:45.
Game 2prediction missed32:7
Quincy Crew 69%A-Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by A-Team in 19:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 69%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2