Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lion
Save- · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
gpK~ · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 1 game
Bloodseeker
Nightfall · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 1 game
Dark Willow
Save- · 1 game
Enchantress
1ls · 1 game
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
177 picks · 401 bans
Mars
169 picks · 307 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
154 picks · 218 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
119 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 399 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:4
Virtus.pro 67%Team Unique 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:16.
Game 2prediction correct22:3
Virtus.pro 67%Team Unique 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2