Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Axeoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
DFlash · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
177 picks · 401 bans
Mars
169 picks · 307 bans
Earth Spirit
160 picks · 126 bans
Void Spirit
154 picks · 218 bans
Phoenix
134 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
119 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 399 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 65%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect