Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 5 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 2 games
VP.Prodigy
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
dSa · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
176 picks · 399 bans
Mars
169 picks · 306 bans
Earth Spirit
159 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
153 picks · 216 bans
Phoenix
133 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
118 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
116 picks · 396 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Winstrike Team 54%VP.Prodigy 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Troll WarlordNoticed
Puckre1bl
BeastmasterLarl
Timbersawchshrct
Tuskforcemajor
Earthshakeryamich
Keeper of the LightdSa
ChenPanto
Game 2prediction missed29:21
Winstrike Team 53%VP.Prodigy 47%
The model gave 53% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
Troll WarlordNoticed
Batriderre1bl
InvokerLarl
Tidehunterchshrct
Earth Spiritforcemajor
DisruptorPanto
OracledSa
Earthshakeryamich
Game 3prediction correct25:9
Winstrike Team 54%VP.Prodigy 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautdyrachyo
BloodseekerNoticed
Void Spiritre1bl
InvokerLarl
Viperchshrct
GrimstrokedSa
PhoenixPanto
Dark Willowforcemajor
Clockwerkyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 57%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3