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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Latam Defenders

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 5 games
20%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 4 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Aretes · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 3 games
33%

NoPing VPN

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Michael · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Mariano · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Accel · 2 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Accel · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
170 picks · 392 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
165 picks · 304 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
156 picks · 125 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
148 picks · 213 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
130 picks · 149 bans
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
113 picks · 204 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 386 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
112 picks · 59 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Latam Defenders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Latam Defenders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:35
Latam Defenders 58%NoPing VPN 42%
The model gave 58% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCucahook
little data51% · 24 games
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawValquiria
50% · 8 gameslittle data
GyrocopterMingatte
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoonlight
49% · 31 game57% · 3 games
ViperOscar
Viper
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAretes
60% · 13 games44% · 13 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
46% · 12 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct38:19
Latam Defenders 59%NoPing VPN 41%
The model gave 59% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCucahook
52% · 23 gameslittle data
GyrocopterMingatte
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsValquiria
55% · 21 game43% · 18 games
Nature's ProphetOscar
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracMoonlight
60% · 7 games50% · 4 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAretes
50% · 6 games41% · 9 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
50% · 26 games
Witch DoctorPanda
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction missed15:42
Latam Defenders 59%NoPing VPN 41%
The model gave 59% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiCucahook
34% · 20 games61% · 9 games
Phantom AssassinMingatte
Phantom Assassin
Venomancer
VenomancerValquiria
little data57% · 24 games
PuckDarkMago
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoonlight
57% · 6 gameslittle data
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAretes
46% · 16 gameslittle data
ViperPanda
Viper
59% · 9 games
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLatam Defenders · 67%
Series resultNoPing VPN 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3