Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Bloodseeker
Arms · 2 games
Elder Titan
Yor · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 2 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
169 picks · 389 bans
Mars
164 picks · 304 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
147 picks · 213 bans
Phoenix
129 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
113 picks · 200 bans
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 382 bans
Rubick
108 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:26
Infamous 50%SG e-sports 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 31:26.
Game 2prediction missed17:32
Infamous 50%SG e-sports 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 24:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 50%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2