Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bburjuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 8 games
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 4 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Flash · 3 games
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
KiLLoManceR · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Atoufix · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
169 picks · 389 bans
Mars
164 picks · 304 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
147 picks · 213 bans
Phoenix
129 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
113 picks · 200 bans
Nyx Assassin
112 picks · 382 bans
Rubick
108 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 25%
Hero pool strength69% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
No Bounty Hunter 72%burjui 28%
The model gave 72% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistkAAN
LinacanceL^^
Ember Spiritntakii
Wraith KingMax
BeastmasterBliNcc
RubickKiLLoManceR
Death ProphetFlash
OracleAtoufix
Earth SpiritdEsire
Game 2prediction correct39:22
No Bounty Hunter 70%burjui 30%
The model gave 70% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkantakii
TerrorbladeMax
JuggernautkAAN
InvokercanceL^^
GrimstrokeBliNcc
RubickKiLLoManceR
Nature's ProphetFlash
OracleAtoufix
Earth SpiritdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 82%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2