Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Earth Spirit
FrancisLee · 1 game
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
YamSun · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jubei · 1 game
Mirana
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
166 picks · 375 bans
Mars
162 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
142 picks · 209 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
111 picks · 198 bans
Nyx Assassin
111 picks · 373 bans
Rubick
105 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Eternity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:16
Team Undying 59%Eternity 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 17:49.
Game 2prediction missed25:48
Team Undying 59%Eternity 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Eternity in 37:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 59%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2