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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
asdekor_r · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 14 games
57%

1w Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 32 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 30 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 28 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
546 picks · 850 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 373 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 642 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 585 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 775 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 585 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 552 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 485 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total71% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
AVULUS 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
43% · 223 games49% · 424 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
44% · 321 gamelittle data
LargoSSS
Largo
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
49% · 223 games45% · 406 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 170 games64% · 161 game
ChenRein
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
54% · 242 games51% · 188 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct25:40
AVULUS 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:04:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
50% · 251 game55% · 322 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
52% · 155 games50% · 167 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Axe
AxeCorrupted
46% · 220 games49% · 416 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
50% · 423 games44% · 217 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterWein
56% · 293 games49% · 220 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 71%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2