Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
XXactJlepbIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 4 games
XactJlepbI
Miranasignature
KingR · 7 games
Rubick
KingR · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
nofear · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
165 picks · 372 bans
Mars
162 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
141 picks · 206 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Nyx Assassin
110 picks · 370 bans
Keeper of the Light
108 picks · 197 bans
Rubick
103 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Brame 37%XactJlepbI 63%
The model gave 63% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 23:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaFocus
Nature's ProphetMagicaL
Death ProphetW1sh-
BeastmasterFunn1k
GrimstrokeSkyLark
Troll WarlordWatson
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
MiranaKingR
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Oraclenofear
Game 2prediction missed30:13
Brame 41%XactJlepbI 59%
The model gave 59% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Brame in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinW1sh-
JuggernautWatson
WeaverFocus
Death ProphetMagicaL
Sand KingSkyLark
Outworld DestroyerFunn1k
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
RubickKingR
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Abaddonnofear
Game 3prediction missed48:22
Brame 41%XactJlepbI 59%
The model gave 59% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Brame in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinFocus
Wraith KingWatson
Dark SeerSkyLark
PuckMagicaL
Bounty HunterCTOMAHEH1
TidehunterFunn1k
ChenSsaSpartan
Nyx AssassinKingR
little data
Enchantressnofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 68%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3