Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 4 games
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 6 games
Marssignature
ATF · 6 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
163 picks · 367 bans
Mars
161 picks · 288 bans
Earth Spirit
148 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
140 picks · 203 bans
Phoenix
126 picks · 144 bans
Nyx Assassin
108 picks · 368 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 197 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 80%
Hero pool strength66% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
Brame 31%Creepwave 69%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Brame in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordFocus
MedusaCrystallis
LycanSkyLark
PuckMalr1ne
KunkkaW1sh-
AxeATF
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Nyx AssassinAlexxo
OracleSsaSpartan
Winter WyvernFishman
Game 2prediction correct15:41
Brame 35%Creepwave 65%
The model gave 65% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendW1sh-
TimbersawMalr1ne
Drow RangerFocus
TidehunterATF
BeastmasterSkyLark
JuggernautCrystallis
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Crystal MaidenFishman
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Nyx AssassinAlexxo
Game 3prediction correct14:35
Brame 32%Creepwave 68%
The model gave 68% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetW1sh-
JuggernautCrystallis
Monkey KingFocus
PuckMalr1ne
EnigmaSkyLark
DoomATF
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
PhoenixAlexxo
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Crystal MaidenFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 78%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3