Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bburjuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
Earth Spirit
Muka · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Askold · 7 games
Chensignature
antoha · 6 games
Nature's Prophet
SuperNova · 5 games
Iooften banned
antoha · 4 games
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 6 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
KiLLoManceR · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Atoufix · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
163 picks · 365 bans
Mars
161 picks · 287 bans
Earth Spirit
148 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
140 picks · 202 bans
Phoenix
125 picks · 144 bans
Nyx Assassin
108 picks · 366 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 195 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength69% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Imperial Pro Gaming 66%burjui 34%
The model gave 66% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 16:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracAskold
Anti-MageMax
TidehunterSuperNova
BatridercanceL^^
MiranaMuka
TuskKiLLoManceR
Oracleantoha
UndyingAtoufix
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Imperial Pro Gaming 68%burjui 32%
The model gave 68% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderAskold
TerrorbladeMax
TidehunterSuperNova
InvokercanceL^^
EarthshakerMuka
PhoenixKiLLoManceR
Ioantoha
OracleAtoufix
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 78%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2