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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 7 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
86%
Lich
Lichsignature
Fishman · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 5 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
160 picks · 286 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
160 picks · 364 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
148 picks · 118 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
137 picks · 201 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
125 picks · 141 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 195 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
107 picks · 365 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
102 picks · 55 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 43%
Hero pool strength63% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:25
Creepwave 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
45% · 10 games33% · 17 games
Ursatatakae
Ursa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
46% · 24 games52% · 69 games
PuckTheChosenOne
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
62% · 49 games42% · 26 games
BatriderAinkrad
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAlexxo
58% · 22 games44% · 5 games
JakiroLodine
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFishman
44% · 12 games
Game 2prediction correct25:9
Creepwave 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCrystallis
54% · 44 games44% · 5 games
Anti-Magetatakae
Anti-Mage
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
52% · 36 games58% · 11 games
Nature's ProphetTheChosenOne
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
43% · 3 games40% · 50 games
MarsAinkrad
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAlexxo
little data54% · 20 games
Witch DoctorLodine
Witch Doctor
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFishman
57% · 3 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 79%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2