Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
xNova · 2 games
Rubick
Frisk · 2 games
Abaddon
xNova · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Xm · 1 game
Brewmaster
xNova · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Chalice · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 1 game
Team Aster
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 4 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
LaNm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xxs · 2 games
Enchantress
LaNm · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Xxs · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 286 bans
Puck
158 picks · 364 bans
Earth Spirit
148 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
137 picks · 201 bans
Phoenix
124 picks · 140 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 195 bans
Nyx Assassin
105 picks · 365 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:19
EHOME 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerXm
MedusaMonet
TidehunterChalice
PuckWhite丶Album
MiranaFrisk
MarsXxs
AbaddonxNova
PhoenixBoBoKa
64% · 12 games
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Game 2prediction correct40:42
EHOME 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:06:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckXm
Wraith KingMonet
MarsChalice
Shadow FiendWhite丶Album
TuskFrisk
Outworld DestroyerXxs
AbaddonxNova
EarthshakerBoBoKa
65% · 36 games
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 68%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2