Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dynastyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Viperoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Dynasty
Mirana
Hy · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Hy · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Hy · 1 game
Tusk
Hy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 285 bans
Puck
155 picks · 364 bans
Earth Spirit
147 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
137 picks · 200 bans
Phoenix
124 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 195 bans
Nyx Assassin
105 picks · 365 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:31
Xtreme Gaming 49%Dynasty 51%
The model gave 51% on Dynasty — the game was taken by Dynasty in 21:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckbLink
Skywrath MageHy
UrsaStorm
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Xtreme Gaming 56%Dynasty 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordStorm
MiranaHy
PuckbLink
Game 3prediction correct42:13
Xtreme Gaming 53%Dynasty 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckbLink
Earth SpiritHy
Storm SpiritStorm
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3