Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Electronic Boysloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Electronic Boys
Jakiro
albinozebra · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Giant · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Giant · 2 games
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 1 game
Grimstroke
albinozebra · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 284 bans
Puck
155 picks · 362 bans
Earth Spirit
145 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
137 picks · 200 bans
Phoenix
123 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
107 picks · 195 bans
Nyx Assassin
105 picks · 363 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:34
Electronic Boys 19%simply TOOBASED 81%
The model gave 81% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 51:37.
Game 2prediction correct7:27
Electronic Boys 19%simply TOOBASED 81%
The model gave 81% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 22:39.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 81%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2