Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
156 picks · 275 bans
Puck
151 picks · 355 bans
Earth Spirit
141 picks · 114 bans
Void Spirit
133 picks · 193 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 135 bans
Keeper of the Light
104 picks · 190 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
101 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:36
HellRaisers 30%PuckChamp 70%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 48:35.
Game 2prediction correct20:56
HellRaisers 30%PuckChamp 70%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 38:26.
Game 3prediction correct10:23
HellRaisers 30%PuckChamp 70%
The model gave 70% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 30:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 70%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3