Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
Chenoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
Tusk
sayuw · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Bloodseeker
Petushara · 2 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 2 games
EXTREMUM
Marssignature
Shachlo · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
Nefrit · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 6 games
Witch Doctor
G · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
154 picks · 275 bans
Puck
151 picks · 350 bans
Earth Spirit
137 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
131 picks · 193 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 132 bans
Keeper of the Light
103 picks · 186 bans
Nyx Assassin
103 picks · 350 bans
Rubick
100 picks · 52 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Team Empire 45%EXTREMUM 55%
The model gave 55% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPetushara
Monkey KingNefrit
MedusaSmiling Knight
Void Spiritmellojul
Keeper of the LightEcNart
MarsShachlo
Earth Spiritsayuw
Death ProphetG
63% · 4 games
Shadow DemonChuvash
Game 2prediction missed40:16
Team Empire 46%EXTREMUM 54%
The model gave 54% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
AlchemistNefrit
Death ProphetPetushara
Dark SeerShachlo
Ancient ApparitionEcNart
Batridermellojul
Earth Spiritsayuw
GrimstrokeG
57% · 21 game
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Game 3prediction missed31:20
Team Empire 44%EXTREMUM 56%
The model gave 56% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
Wraith KingNefrit
Death ProphetPetushara
Queen of Painmellojul
Earth Spiritsayuw
MarsShachlo
DisruptorEcNart
EnigmaChuvash
51% · 17 games
Witch DoctorG
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 63%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3