PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SXSustancia Xloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BTC Gaming
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Tusk
Mjz · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Alchemist
Mnz · 1 game
Bane
Prada · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 1 game
Sustancia X
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
553 picks · 846 bans
Tusk
518 picks · 371 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 771 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 590 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 554 bans
Mars
344 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BTC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% BTC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:20
BTC Gaming 51%Sustancia X 49%
The model gave 51% on BTC Gaming — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 25:40.
Game 2prediction correct21:4
BTC Gaming 51%Sustancia X 49%
The model gave 51% on BTC Gaming — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 21:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteBTC Gaming · 51%
Series resultBTC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2