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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 29 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 29 games
45%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 28 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
59%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 26 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 25 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 25 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
553 picks · 846 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 371 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 585 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 770 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 590 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 553 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 485 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head6 – 5
Model total78% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:20
Zero Tenacity 67%Yellow Submarine 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorKami
47% · 40 games46% · 201 game
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckWorick
57% · 255 games39% · 29 games
Drow Rangerbottega
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
59% · 233 games35% · 71 game
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
53% · 305 games48% · 317 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
56% · 53 games51% · 268 games
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 78%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1