Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NoTechieswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 2 games
Iooften banned
so bad · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yatoro · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Collapse · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 1 game
Grimstroke
Collapse · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 1 game
NoTechies
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
Bloodseeker
Malik · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
151 picks · 270 bans
Puck
148 picks · 343 bans
Earth Spirit
136 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
127 picks · 190 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 129 bans
Nyx Assassin
100 picks · 342 bans
Keeper of the Light
98 picks · 182 bans
Rubick
96 picks · 47 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Team Spirit 47%NoTechies 53%
The model gave 53% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYatoro
MorphlingCrystallize
Outworld DestroyerTORONTOTOKYO
PugnaErgon
MarsCollapse
Void SpiritMalik
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
RubickZayac
Clockwerkso bad
EnchantressSolo
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Team Spirit 50%NoTechies 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
MeepoErgon
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Monkey KingCrystallize
Void SpiritCollapse
MarsMalik
Nyx Assassinso bad
MiranaZayac
DisruptorMiposhka
Keeper of the LightSolo
Game 3prediction correct8:26
Team Spirit 47%NoTechies 53%
The model gave 53% on NoTechies — the game was taken by NoTechies in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
Wraith KingCrystallize
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm SpiritErgon
Legion CommanderCollapse
AxeMalik
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Keeper of the LightSolo
Nyx Assassinso bad
EarthshakerZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 52%
Series resultNoTechies 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3