Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
RodjER · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
V-Tune · 1 game
Marsoften banned
GeneRaL · 1 game
EXTREMUM
Marssignature
Shachlo · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
Nefrit · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 6 games
Witch Doctor
G · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
150 picks · 268 bans
Puck
148 picks · 341 bans
Earth Spirit
134 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
125 picks · 189 bans
Phoenix
117 picks · 127 bans
Keeper of the Light
98 picks · 181 bans
Nyx Assassin
98 picks · 341 bans
Rubick
96 picks · 47 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Natus Vincere 46%EXTREMUM 54%
The model gave 54% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageV-Tune
MedusaNefrit
SilencerIceberg
Kunkkamellojul
EnigmaGeneRaL
MarsShachlo
Earth SpiritRodjER
Death ProphetG
Naga SirenALWAYSWANNAFLY
Elder TitanChuvash
Game 2prediction missed31:23
Natus Vincere 44%EXTREMUM 56%
The model gave 56% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerV-Tune
MedusaNefrit
Death ProphetIceberg
Dark SeerShachlo
EnigmaGeneRaL
Void Spiritmellojul
Earth SpiritRodjER
Treant ProtectorChuvash
DisruptorALWAYSWANNAFLY
Nyx AssassinG
Game 3prediction missed27:12
Natus Vincere 47%EXTREMUM 53%
The model gave 53% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingV-Tune
Wraith KingNefrit
DoomIceberg
Void Spiritmellojul
EnigmaGeneRaL
UnderlordShachlo
Nyx AssassinRodjER
GrimstrokeG
DisruptorALWAYSWANNAFLY
PhoenixChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3