PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionVValinorloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
strongboyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Valinor
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Jakirooften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
Spirit Breaker
Jeezy · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
strongboys
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
Pugna
Tobi · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
Undying
Tobi · 1 game
Weaver
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
553 picks · 844 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 371 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 769 bans
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 590 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 553 bans
Mars
344 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Valinor 46%strongboys 54%
The model gave 54% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Shadow FiendLowskill
MuertaCoblackk
MarciChodΣX
KunkkaWuiter
SlardarStojkov
TuskStoic
HoodwinkPonlo
WindrangerJeezy
BaneTobi
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Valinor 42%strongboys 58%
The model gave 58% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 51:16.
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 58%
Series resultstrongboys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2