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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Duster · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
illusion · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 4 games
25%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
illusion · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
0%

VP.Prodigy

Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
40%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
forcemajor · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
148 picks · 267 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
146 picks · 339 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
133 picks · 110 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
125 picks · 185 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
115 picks · 127 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
97 picks · 180 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
96 picks · 340 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
95 picks · 47 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:20
B8 Esports 53%VP.Prodigy 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRdO
50% · 18 games45% · 12 games
Troll WarlordNoticed
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDendi
54% · 16 games71% · 3 games
LycanLarl
Lycan
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
70% · 6 games44% · 29 games
OracledSa
Oracle
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDuster
51% · 38 games48% · 34 games
Earth Spiritforcemajor
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed20:47
B8 Esports 55%VP.Prodigy 45%
The model gave 55% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenRdO
little datalittle data
SniperLarl
Sniper
Invoker
InvokerDendi
55% · 10 games43% · 3 games
BloodseekerNoticed
Bloodseeker
Rubick
Rubick[T]SA
46% · 37 games55% · 30 games
Nyx Assassinforcemajor
Nyx Assassin
Undying
UndyingDuster
39% · 18 games55% · 32 games
PhoenixdSa
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 57%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2