Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 2 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 2 games
Gyrocopter
shiro · 2 games
Iooften banned
zzq · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
Xtreme Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Viperoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
146 picks · 267 bans
Puck
145 picks · 337 bans
Earth Spirit
133 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
124 picks · 184 bans
Phoenix
114 picks · 127 bans
Keeper of the Light
97 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
95 picks · 340 bans
Rubick
94 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 58%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect