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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gorillaz-Pridewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

0-900

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Jericho · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sl4d1n- · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Greedy · 1 game
100%

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Benjaz · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Benjaz · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Cara · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
144 picks · 265 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
141 picks · 334 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
129 picks · 109 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
123 picks · 182 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
113 picks · 124 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
96 picks · 173 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
94 picks · 333 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
92 picks · 214 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 0-900
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:27
0-900 46%Gorillaz-Pride 54%
The model gave 54% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGreedy
67% · 8 games53% · 14 games
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
Nature's Prophet
Mirana
Miranasl4d1n-
33% · 5 games44% · 5 games
LeshracTaO
Leshrac
Undying
UndyingJericho
49% · 19 games46% · 13 games
Nyx Assassind1smar
Nyx Assassin
little data
Winter WyvernCara
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed26:13
0-900 47%Gorillaz-Pride 53%
The model gave 53% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by 0-900 in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderGreedy
47% · 28 games55% · 25 games
PuckTaO
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakersl4d1n-
60% · 14 games57% · 3 games
BloodseekerBenjaz
Bloodseeker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorJericho
50% · 22 games44% · 8 games
GrimstrokeCara
Grimstroke
45% · 28 games
Earth Spiritd1smar
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction missed40:20
0-900 40%Gorillaz-Pride 60%
The model gave 60% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by 0-900 in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinysl4d1n-
33% · 5 games50% · 4 games
Death ProphetTaO
Death Prophet
Axe
AxeGreedy
56% · 5 games79% · 15 games
MarsBenjaz
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJericho
30% · 19 games44% · 5 games
Rubickd1smar
Rubick
56% · 5 games
Witch DoctorCara
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 59%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3