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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kpii · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
kpii · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Febby · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Armel · 1 game
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Tims · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 1 game
0%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 4 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 3 games
100%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Skem · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
142 picks · 262 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
141 picks · 327 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
126 picks · 109 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
123 picks · 178 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
113 picks · 120 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
95 picks · 167 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
91 picks · 331 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
91 picks · 46 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 83%
Hero pool strength58% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:42
TNC Predator 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenGabbi
little data50% · 6 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingArmel
54% · 33 games41% · 21 game
RikiNatsumi
Riki
Mirana
MiranaTims
58% · 25 games47% · 21 game
PangolierPlayHard
Pangolier
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerkpii
39% · 20 games49% · 18 games
Troll WarlordJaunuel
Troll Warlord
Oracle
OracleFebby
52% · 21 game53% · 33 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed49:25
TNC Predator 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 54:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGabbi
little data71% · 3 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderArmel
51% · 23 games38% · 4 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Mars
Marskpii
54% · 24 games56% · 8 games
Sand KingPlayHard
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTims
little data42% · 26 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Oracle
OracleFebby
50% · 6 games53% · 12 games
BrewmasterJaunuel
Brewmaster
Game 3prediction correct22:31
TNC Predator 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGabbi
29% · 3 games59% · 18 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
50% · 6 gameslittle data
GyrocopterYopaj
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkpii
62% · 19 games50% · 12 games
PangolierPlayHard
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaTims
45% · 18 games36% · 10 games
Nyx AssassinSkem
Nyx Assassin
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFebby
43% · 3 games41% · 9 games
GrimstrokeJaunuel
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 80%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3