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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 5 games
20%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ghost · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
343 · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
343 · 2 games
100%

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
142 picks · 260 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
141 picks · 326 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
126 picks · 109 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
123 picks · 178 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
113 picks · 120 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
95 picks · 167 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
91 picks · 329 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
91 picks · 46 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:33
Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%Yangon Galacticos 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordGhost
little datalittle data
Phantom AssassinYoung PH
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAlaCrity
little data
Disruptor
Disruptor343
little data
Game 2prediction correct34:9
Nigma Galaxy SEA 52%Yangon Galacticos 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenGhost
little datalittle data
MedusaYoung PH
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
little data
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi343
little data
Game 3prediction missed15:33
Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%Yangon Galacticos 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGhost
little data57% · 3 games
UrsaYoung PH
Ursa
Juggernaut
JuggernautAlaCrity
43% · 3 games
Disruptor
Disruptor343
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3