Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Latam Defendersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Latam Defenders
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 4 games
Mirana
Moonlight · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Aretes · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Cucahook · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
142 picks · 258 bans
Puck
141 picks · 325 bans
Earth Spirit
125 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 178 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 120 bans
Keeper of the Light
95 picks · 167 bans
Nyx Assassin
91 picks · 327 bans
Rubick
90 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
beastcoast 61%Latam Defenders 39%
The model gave 61% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 27:56.
Game 2prediction missed12:26
beastcoast 61%Latam Defenders 39%
The model gave 61% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 23:45.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 61%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2