Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionBburjuiloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
XXactJlepbIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 3 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 2 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
KiLLoManceR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
XactJlepbI
Rubick
KingR · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
nofear · 5 games
Mirana
KingR · 5 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
141 picks · 257 bans
Puck
141 picks · 321 bans
Earth Spirit
123 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 178 bans
Phoenix
112 picks · 120 bans
Keeper of the Light
94 picks · 165 bans
Nyx Assassin
91 picks · 322 bans
Rubick
90 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 59%
Hero pool strength65% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
burjui 35%XactJlepbI 65%
The model gave 65% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMax
MorphlingWatson
JuggernautcanceL^^
Outworld DestroyerMagicaL
PhoenixKiLLoManceR
Legion CommanderFunn1k
Witch DoctorAtoufix
MiranaKingR
Game 2prediction correct15:52
burjui 32%XactJlepbI 68%
The model gave 68% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiMax
SlarkWatson
BatridercanceL^^
SlardarFunn1k
Keeper of the LightKiLLoManceR
Ember SpiritMagicaL
DisruptorAtoufix
MiranaKingR
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 77%
Series resultXactJlepbI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2