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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Mitch · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
dnz · 3 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 9 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
tatakae · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
139 picks · 314 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
138 picks · 252 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 103 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
118 picks · 175 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
110 picks · 117 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
92 picks · 164 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
89 picks · 314 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
88 picks · 43 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:34
Spider Pigzs 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinlil pleb
50% · 10 games43% · 3 games
Ursatatakae
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMitch
little data55% · 22 games
Void SpiritTheChosenOne
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
56% · 5 games37% · 12 games
OracleLodine
Oracle
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdnz
59% · 12 gameslittle data
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
43% · 10 games
Game 2prediction correct39:20
Spider Pigzs 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlil pleb
43% · 3 games51% · 29 games
Monkey Kingtatakae
Monkey King
Puck
PuckNo!ob
44% · 39 games59% · 35 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Viper
ViperMitch
49% · 12 games50% · 4 games
EnigmaTheChosenOne
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamandnz
43% · 3 gameslittle data
JakiroLodine
Jakiro
Brewmaster
BrewmasterLeBronDota
48% · 11 games
Game 3prediction correct44:18
Spider Pigzs 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 47:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
51% · 11 games43% · 6 games
Anti-Magetatakae
Anti-Mage
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMitch
57% · 12 games40% · 46 games
MarsAinkrad
Mars
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
59% · 29 games52% · 23 games
TidehunterTheChosenOne
Tidehunter
Earthshaker
Earthshakerdnz
57% · 6 games49% · 20 games
OracleLodine
Oracle
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
52% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 68%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3