Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Live to Winloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lion
Save- · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
gpK~ · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 1 game
Live to Win
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
fn · 2 games
Bloodseeker
AfterLife · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
139 picks · 313 bans
Mars
137 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 102 bans
Void Spirit
118 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
110 picks · 117 bans
Keeper of the Light
91 picks · 163 bans
Nyx Assassin
88 picks · 313 bans
Rubick
88 picks · 43 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Live to Win
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Live to Win
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:21
Virtus.pro 49%Live to Win 51%
The model gave 51% on Live to Win — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNightfall
JuggernautKami
Queen of PaingpK~
TimbersawAfterLife
MarsDM
Invokerfn
Dark WillowSave-
TuskImmersion
Keeper of the Light1ls
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct22:18
Virtus.pro 51%Live to Win 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNightfall
SlarkKami
BatridergpK~
Ember Spiritfn
BeastmasterDM
Legion CommanderAfterLife
Enchantress1ls
GrimstrokeSoNNeikO
Nyx AssassinSave-
TuskImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteLive to Win · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2