Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 6 games
Witch Doctor
G · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Level UP
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Snapfireoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
139 picks · 309 bans
Mars
135 picks · 250 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
117 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
107 picks · 117 bans
Keeper of the Light
91 picks · 160 bans
Rubick
87 picks · 42 bans
Nyx Assassin
86 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 22%
Hero pool strength62% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
EXTREMUM 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNefrit
Sand KingBor@nija
Ember Spiritmellojul
MiranaMastermind
MarsShachlo
PhoenixChuvash
Crystal MaidenMisha
Game 2prediction correct24:11
EXTREMUM 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 23:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNefrit
MarsBor@nija
Batridermellojul
Dark SeerMastermind
BeastmasterShachlo
PhoenixChuvash
Crystal MaidenMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 83%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2