Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 5 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 5 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
velheor · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 3 games
Axe
LastHero- · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 2 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
139 picks · 309 bans
Mars
135 picks · 250 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
117 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
107 picks · 117 bans
Keeper of the Light
91 picks · 160 bans
Rubick
87 picks · 42 bans
Nyx Assassin
86 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% NoUndying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
NoUndying 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 30:01.
Game 2prediction correct20:29
NoUndying 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 43:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 55%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2