Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 4 games
Earthshaker
Gilgir · 4 games
Oracle
tOfu · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Ace · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 3 games
No Bounty Hunter
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 3 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
137 picks · 307 bans
Mars
135 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 98 bans
Void Spirit
115 picks · 170 bans
Phoenix
105 picks · 116 bans
Keeper of the Light
89 picks · 159 bans
Nyx Assassin
86 picks · 307 bans
Rubick
85 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:17
Hellbear Smashers 50%No Bounty Hunter 50%
The model gave 50% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerStormstormer
Batriderntakii
Ember SpiritAce
RikikAAN
BeastmasterMISERY
Void SpiritBliNcc
PhoenixGilgir
Keeper of the LightFlash
Witch DoctortOfu
Game 2prediction missed41:30
Hellbear Smashers 49%No Bounty Hunter 51%
The model gave 51% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 38:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerStormstormer
JuggernautkAAN
Ember SpiritAce
LycanBliNcc
Monkey KingMISERY
Rubickntakii
PhoenixGilgir
Keeper of the LightFlash
Crystal MaidentOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 55%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2