Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 3 games
Tusk
CatYou · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
MS · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
137 picks · 306 bans
Mars
134 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
120 picks · 98 bans
Void Spirit
115 picks · 170 bans
Phoenix
105 picks · 116 bans
Keeper of the Light
89 picks · 157 bans
Nyx Assassin
85 picks · 306 bans
Rubick
85 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
Elephant 43%LBZS 57%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 38:14.
Game 2prediction correct41:13
Elephant 43%LBZS 57%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 24:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 57%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2