Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
135 picks · 301 bans
Mars
134 picks · 245 bans
Earth Spirit
119 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
113 picks · 169 bans
Phoenix
103 picks · 115 bans
Keeper of the Light
87 picks · 156 bans
Nyx Assassin
85 picks · 300 bans
Rubick
84 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:29
Team Undying 69%5ManMidas 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 31:37.
Game 2prediction missed30:8
Team Undying 69%5ManMidas 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 25:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 69%
Series resultTeam Undying 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2