Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionBburjuiloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hippomaniacswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 3 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
KiLLoManceR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Grimstroke
Atoufix · 1 game
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
132 picks · 242 bans
Puck
132 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
117 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
112 picks · 168 bans
Phoenix
103 picks · 110 bans
Keeper of the Light
84 picks · 155 bans
Nyx Assassin
84 picks · 297 bans
Rubick
83 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Hippomaniacs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:47
burjui 48%Hippomaniacs 52%
The model gave 52% on Hippomaniacs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 31:52.
Game 2prediction correct41:53
burjui 48%Hippomaniacs 52%
The model gave 52% on Hippomaniacs — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 39:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteHippomaniacs · 52%
Series resultHippomaniacs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2