Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Witch Doctor
G · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
G · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Chuvash · 4 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
132 picks · 242 bans
Puck
132 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
117 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
112 picks · 168 bans
Phoenix
103 picks · 110 bans
Keeper of the Light
84 picks · 155 bans
Nyx Assassin
84 picks · 297 bans
Rubick
83 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:13
EXTREMUM 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 34:40.
Game 2prediction missed17:32
EXTREMUM 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Unique in 42:01.
Game 3prediction correct27:17
EXTREMUM 63%Team Unique 37%
The model gave 63% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 38:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 63%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3